A westbound Caribbean shuffle still has poor organization but is suspected to become Tropical Storm Bonnie later today, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“If I had a random look at conventional satellite data, I would have thought the system was already a tropical storm,” said NHC hurricane expert Eric Blake. “There is a large ball of convection near the center, with banding features occurring in most of the system’s quadrants. But the microwave data only show very low-level structure without extensive curvature and obvious signs of a well-defined center.”
8 of the National Hurricane Center. My advisory on Wednesday said heavy rains and tropical storm-force winds will begin late tonight for islands in the Southern Caribbean that meteorologists call Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Hurricane Fighter confirmed that the system has not yet earned the organization to be classified as a tropical storm and does not have a center of circulation.
The system is located approximately 185 miles east-southeast of Curaçao, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph at 30 mph as of the 8am update. While the system remains unorganized, hurricane experts suspect that could change in the next 12 hours.
“One reason the system hasn’t been able to shut down a circulation so far is too high speed,” Blake said. Said. However, the models show that the deterioration stabilizes in the evening hours. Then the system should stay away from condensation for two days. Blake said it could be back to strength by Friday.
Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago from 8am; Grenada and its dependencies; Venezuelan islands, Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua; and Bonaire, Curacao, the islands of Aruba, and parts of the Venezuelan and Colombian coasts.
The system has tropical storm-force winds extending up to 60 miles from the system center. If named, it becomes Tropical Storm Bonnie. NHC gives it a 90% chance of occurrence in the next five days.
“On the forecast track, the system will pass today near the South Caribbean Sea and the north coast of Venezuela, near Colombia’s Guajira Peninsula early Thursday, and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.”
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Meteorologists are also considering two other disturbances that are likely to be a tropical system.
A zone of disturbance increased showers and thunderstorms overnight and over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Further development is possible, but the system is currently messy. As the NHC slowly drifts westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into Texas, it has a 40% chance of transforming into a tropical system in the next two to five days.
“It can become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before moving inland,” the NHC said. “Whatever the development, heavy rain will be possible on parts of the Texas coast later this week.”
It also produces a tropical wave, irregular showers and thunderstorms over the mid-tropical Atlantic. The wave is expected to contact and develop another tropical wave later this week. The NHC gave the wave a 10% chance of becoming a depression in the next two days and a 30% chance in the next five days.
If any of the systems improve, they’ll be the second system of the season after Tropical Storm Alex, which rained about a foot in parts of Florida earlier this month.
After Bonnie, the next two names would be Colin and Danielle.
A tropical system can be called a tropical depression without turning into a tropical storm state. The system isn’t named until it sustains winds at 39 mph, and isn’t called a hurricane until it sustains winds at 74 mph.
The 2022 season runs from 1 June to 1 November. 30 is predicted to be another above-normal year for storms following the 30th of 2020 and the 21st of 2021.
Jpedersen@orlandosentinel.com
