Dow Jones futures will open Monday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. tesla (TSLA) and Chinese EV manufacturers such as Nio, Li Auto and BYD will report year-end and 2022 deliveries over the New Year holiday weekend.
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Investors will look for a brighter stock market in 2023, especially after a year of “stay away” for growth. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered their biggest annual declines in 14 years. A stock market rally attempt is underway, but it has a long way to go to prove itself.
The Dow Jones fell below its 50-day moving average on Friday. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in particular have some way to go to reach the 50-day line, and there are a few other key areas of resistance along the way.
Celsius Holding (FULL), Deere (Germany), BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (BMRN), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Medpace (MEDP) are five stocks close to their buy point. It is a diverse list that reflects possible areas of market leadership in the new year.
DE stock and Medpace open IBD Leaderboard. Celsius stock, MEDP stock up IBD 50. Deere and BMRN stocks rise IBD Big Cap 20.
Deere was Friday IBD Stock of the Day.
But whether these stocks work or not depends on the uptrend of the market. Not now. Investors should be very careful.
The video attached to the article discussed the recent market action in depth and discussed what investors should do as the 2023 stock market moves forward. The video also analyzed CELH stock, Deere and BioMarin.
Chinese Economy in Trouble
China’s economic activity is slumping as the abrupt end of strict Covid rules encourages massive waves of infections. The official manufacturing index fell 1 point to 47 in December, the government said on Saturday. Non-manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction, fell 6.1 points to 41.6. Both are the lowest since February 2020, when Covid-19 first hit the country. Readings below 50 signal contraction.
China EV Deliveries
No (NIO), Li Car (IF) and XPeng (XPEV) Open for reporting December, fourth quarter and full year EV deliveries On Sunday, January 1. Li Auto said on Friday that December deliveries of its hybrid SUVs will surpass 20,000, breaking November’s record of 15,034. Nio recently lowered its Q4 delivery guidance, citing Covid-related issues. Guidance meant 14,263-15,263 EV deliveries in December, which will slightly exceed November’s record of 14,178. Xpeng should see deliveries up after several month-to-month dips, but the model lineup is struggling.
BYD will likely report December sales on January 1. 3, before the US market opens on Tuesday. The EV and battery giant recently stated that Covid infections among workers have reduced production by at least 2,000 vehicles per day. Full-year deliveries of all-electric BEVs and plug-in hybrids should be around 1.88 million, BYD said recently. That means December deliveries are around 247,000-250,000, which would still be a record.
Nio stock had a tough 2022, as did Li Auto, Xpeng and BYD, other EV makers, and growing stocks in general. They all bottomed out in October or early November, but have retreated in recent weeks.
Tesla vs. BYD: Which EV Giant Would Buy Better?
Tesla EV Deliveries
Tesla is expected to announce its fourth-quarter EV production and delivery figures on Jan. 2. Analysts expect 418,000 Q4 Tesla deliveries, but consensus has been falling in recent days as China has been even weaker. Tesla offered major year-end incentives, particularly in China and the US, to boost sales. This didn’t give a big boost in China, but it did seem to clear inventory in the US.
In 2023, Tesla will enjoy new US tax credits of up to $7,500, but year-end incentives of $7,500 for the Model 3 or Model Y – Model S and X vehicles added on Dec. 30 – this may have touched some of the request. A $55,000 price cap on most Model Y vehicles could limit Tesla’s EV credit growth.
Meanwhile, China is ending EV subsidies. Combined with a massive Covid wave, this could further drive down sales for EV manufacturers out there, including Tesla. Tesla may need significant new price cuts in China, where competition from BYD, Nio, Li Auto, Xpeng and others continues to rise.
In Europe, several countries are cutting or ending EV subsidies, providing another headwind for Tesla as backlogs there are dwindling.
Tesla stock fell 65% in 2022, its worst annual decline ever. Stocks fell 37% in December to their lowest level since September 2022. The electric vehicle giant closed the week roughly flat, rebounding from the midweek bear market lows. TSLA stock volume has been very high for the past few weeks.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures open at 6pm ET on Monday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
US stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday, January 1. 2, on the occasion of New Year’s Eve.
On Tuesday, investors will receive the December ISM manufacturing index. On Friday, the December jobs report is of great importance as the Federal Reserve looks for signs of a weakening job market.
Remember, overnight action Dow futures and elsewhere it doesn’t necessarily turn into real trade on the next regular trade Exchange session, meeting, session.
Join the IBD experts as they analyze stock rally tradable stocks on IBD Live
Stock Exchange Ends 2022
The stock market entered a correction on Wednesday, but another attempt to rally began on Thursday. Major indexes fell on Friday, closing the week slightly negative.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% last week. stock market trading. The S&P 500 index fell 0.1 percent. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%. The small-scale Russell 2000 lost a portion.
For the full year, the Dow Jones fell 8.8%, the S&P 500 fell 19.4% and the Nasdaq fell 33.1%. It was their worst annual performance since 2008.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 13 basis points to 3.88% last week, after rising 27 basis points the previous week. The 10-year yield closed 2021 at 1.51%.
U.S. crude futures rose 0.9% to $80.26 a barrel last week, posting their third consecutive weekly gain. Crude oil prices rose 6.7% for the year, but finished their peak at just over $130 a barrel.
ETFs
Among the growth ETFs is the iShares Extended Technology-Software Industry ETF (IGV) fell 0.3%. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 1%.
Reflecting more speculative story stocks, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rose 0.9% last week, but after hitting a five-year low on Wednesday. ARK Genomic ETF (ARKG) fell 0.7%. TSLA stock is a major holding in Ark Invest’s ETFs. Cathie Wood’s Ark also has a small position in BYD stock.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) fell 1.9% last week. Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (FLOOR) lost 1.2%. US Global Jets ETF (JETS) fell 0.9%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) fell 0.8%. Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 0.5% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) rose 0.7%. Health Sector Selected SPDR Fund (XLV) fell 0.2%.
Top Five China Stocks to Watch Now
Stock Market 2023: 5 Stocks to Watch
BioMarin stock fell 0.8% to 103.49 last week, pulled back in the second half of December but kept support around its 21-day line. A strong rise from current levels could present an aggressive entry. However, investors may want to wait for BMRN stock to establish a new bottom or find support at the 10-week line. BioMarin earnings are expected to triple by 2023.
Deere stock fell 1.9% last week to 428.76 and retraced its 10-week moving average. flat sole now on the weekly chart. Formal point of purchase with 448.50. Investors can use a 10-week streak bounce as an early entry for DE stock, perhaps after retaking the 21-day streak.
CELH stock has slipped from its December record lows for the past four weeks, but recovered from its 50-day line on Friday to close at 104.04. Celsius stock could offer an early entry if it steadfastly crosses the 21-day mark. 27 high 109.31 as a specific trigger.
XOM stock rose 1.5% last week to 110.30, slightly above the 50-day moving average. A move above December. The 27 high could offer an early entry of 110.47. Exxon stock is flat at 114.76 points of purchase accordingly. MarketSmith analysis.
MEDP stock rose modestly from its 50-day moving average on Thursday and broke above the downtrend line in a recent consolidation. This provided an early entry in its consolidation. On Friday, Medpace stock dropped to 50-days but closed well as major indexes pulled back again.
Medpace’s move may still work, but it shows how difficult it is for stocks to make progress.
Stock Market Analysis
Despite the strong bounce on Thursday, the stock market fell last week and left behind a tough year.
Major indices are outside of October bear market lows, but well below December’s short-term highs. Technically a rally attempt is underway as the 2023 stock market begins, but it needs a rally for it. follow up day To confirm a new uptrend.
Even then, the market would have faced a number of technical hurdles as the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 were just below the 50-day and 200-day lines. The Dow Jones, which has been the relative leader in recent months, has dropped below the 50-day mark by the end of 2022, but is over 200 days.
Until the Fed’s interest rate is endgame and clarity about the economy, the market can move with volatility and sideways movements.
The December employment report was released on Friday, January 1. 6 will be important. Significant slowdown in hiring and wage growth will strengthen expectations that Fed rate hikes will slow further and raise hopes that peak rates are near. But solid or accelerating business and wage growth will likely trigger a big sale.
Time the Market with IBD’s ETF Market Strategy
what to do now
At the year-end IBD Live on Friday, O’Neil Global Advisors portfolio manager Charles Harris said 2022 is a “stay away” market. There will be great opportunities ahead, including innovative companies and trends, but not yet.
A number of stocks are preparing nicely, including Deere, BioMarin, and Medpace. The problem is that many stocks have been created in the last few months, but these setups have generally not worked.
But investors must stay engaged and ready to act. If there is a confirmed rally in early 2023, many stocks have the potential to quickly rise solid or sharply.
So work on your watchlists but enjoy the long weekend. Come back to the new year refreshed by anticipating the next bull market.
To read big picture Staying in sync with market direction and leading stocks and industries every day.
Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter: @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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