TEL AVIV—Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a slight advantage over his rivals in Israel’s leadership race in the latest polls before Tuesday’s election showdown, but a stalemate on the fifth ballot in three years is also a likely outcome.
Following the government’s collapse in the summer, Israelis must decide between a record third term as Mr Trump’s prime minister. Netanyahu, or the left-wing that defeated him in 2021, is returning to a unique, clumsy coalition of centrist, right-wing and Arab parties.
Friday’s polls—the final polls that can be published under Israeli law—Mr. Netanyahu is a slight advantage over his biggest rival, Prime Minister Yair Lapid. Neither party is expected to win an absolute majority, but gentlemen. Netanyahu and Lapid have allies who are expected to form a governing coalition.
Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party was expected to win 30 seats, according to a poll by Israel Hayom news outlet. His bloc of right-wing and religious allies was expected to win a total of 61 seats, enough for a majority in Israel’s 120-seat Parliament.
Mr. Lapid’s Yesh Atid party was expected to win 25 seats in the same poll, and his anti-Netanyahu bloc 59 seats.
However, another poll by the Israeli newspaper Maariv on Friday showed Mr. Netanyahu and his rivals are in a stalemate of 60 seats each.
Israel’s 11th, 12th and 13th channels also showed a 60-60 deadlock between the two camps in polls released Friday night.
Friday’s polls are largely in line with other recent polls showing Mr. Netanyahu and his supporters are either gaining a weak majority or falling short.
In head-to-head camps, the election is likely to be decided on which side can best increase voter turnout. Mr. According to political analysts, Netanyahu has the advantage because all four parties in his bloc are scheduled to comfortably win 3.25% of the vote – a threshold for holding seats in Parliament. The votes of the parties below 3.25% are considered invalid.
Three parties in the anti-Netanyahu bloc hover near this political danger zone, according to the Israel Hayom poll. If any of them fails to enter the Assembly, Mr. It is certain that Netanyahu’s bloc will have the majority.
If Messrs. If Lapid or Netanyahu manage to form a coalition, their government is likely to be fragile. If their demands are not met, any MP will have the leverage to overthrow the government.
Mr. Netanyahu held the country’s top seat from 2009 until last year, when his opponents joined forces to form a narrow 61-seat coalition. This was the fourth election in a two-year period of political uncertainty initiated by Mr Trump. Netanyahu’s 2019 indictment on corruption charges and his departure from the weak government coalition.
Mr. Lapid’s alliance, only Mr. Netanyahu, whom most coalition members believe should not be allowed to run the country while he is being prosecuted on corruption charges. Mr. Netanyahu denies any wrongdoing.
Mr. Netanyahu campaigned against the last government, the first in Israeli history to include an independent Arab party, saying it contained members sympathetic to terrorists. The coalition disintegrated in less than a year as members clashed over policies related to West Bank settlements, Palestinians, and issues of religion and state.
Even if there are 61 deputies who oppose Mr. Erdogan. After the election, Netanyahu, Lapid would still have trouble forming a coalition. It will have to rely on the support of Arab parties, but its allies say they will refuse to sit in alliance because of the Palestinian nationalist character of these parties.
Mr. Netanyahu’s bloc converged; He is the undisputed leader and largely shares the same ideology. In a government with a narrow majority, Mr. Will stand by Netanyahu Itamar Ben-Gvir, co-president of Religious ZionismHe is a far-right MP whose party won 15 seats in the Israel Hayom poll and 14 seats in the Maariv poll. Mr. I pressed for use of Gvir lethal force against the Palestinians advocating the deportation of people who used violence during protests and sought to undermine Israel’s Jewish character.
In the event of a deadlock, Israeli defense minister Benny Gantz could be the biggest winner. The National Unity party, which is now a mix of centrist and right-wing MPs, including some senior defectors from the Likud party, is scheduled to take 11 or 12 seats, respectively, according to polls from Israel Hayom and Maariv.
Mr. Gantz calls himself Mr. Netanyahu and his rivals. In a deadlock situation, he can accept Bay’s offer. Netanyahu will serve first in a rotating government, or Mr. Trump will continue as secretary of defense. Lapid’s transitional government as the country prepares for the sixth round of elections.
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