Tropical storm warnings have been issued to several Caribbean island areas as an ill-defined disturbance is predicted to be the first hurricane of 2022 by the end of the week.
8 of the National Hurricane Center. Tuesday afternoon’s advice said heavy rains and tropical storm-force winds would begin late tonight for islands in the Southern Caribbean, which meteorologists call Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Hurricane Fighter confirmed that the system has not yet earned the organization to be classified as a tropical storm and does not have a center of circulation.
But hurricane experts suspect it could turn into the first hurricane of the season as the system moves into the southwestern Caribbean Sea and Central America this week.
The system is located about 10 miles east of Trinidad and is moving west at 25 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph as of the 8:00 PM update.
Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago; Grenada and its dependencies; Venezuelan islands Margarita Islands, Coche and Cubagua; and the islands of Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba. There was also a Tropical Storm Watch for parts of the Venezuelan and Colombian coasts.
The system has tropical storm-force winds extending up to 60 miles from the system center. If named, it becomes Tropical Storm Bonnie. NHC gives it a 90% chance of occurrence in the next five days.
“On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over the southern Windward Islands tonight and will move on Wednesday and Thursday near the southern Caribbean Sea or the north coast of Venezuela and the northeast coast of Colombia.” NHC. “If the disturbance continues over the water and is likely to develop into a tropical storm as it moves westward near the southern Windward Islands or along the southern Caribbean Sea, conditions appear favorable for development.”
Meteorologists are also considering two other disturbances that are likely to be a tropical system.
A zone of disturbance increased showers and thunderstorms overnight and over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Further development is possible, but the system is currently messy. As the NHC slowly drifts westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into Texas, it gives a 40% chance of transforming into a tropical system in the next two to five days.
“It can become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before moving inland,” the NHC said. “Whatever the development, heavy rain will be possible on parts of the Texas coast later this week.”
It also produces a tropical wave, irregular showers and thunderstorms over the mid-tropical Atlantic. The wave is expected to contact and develop another tropical wave later this week. The NHC has given the wave a 20% chance of becoming a depression in the next five days.
If any of the systems improve, they’ll be the second system of the season after Tropical Storm Alex, which rained about a foot in parts of Florida earlier this month.
After Bonnie, the next two names would be Colin and Danielle.
A tropical system can be called a tropical depression without turning into a tropical storm state. The system isn’t named until it sustains winds at 39 mph, and isn’t called a hurricane until it sustains winds at 74 mph.
The 2022 season runs from 1 June to 1 November. 30 is predicted to be another above-normal year for storms following the 30th of 2020 and the 21st of 2021.
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